published on June 09, 2024 in celeb

SEC basketball preview: Can Tennessee or Texas A&M break through in deep league?

Turns out, you can’t spell “respect” without SEC. The league has finally earned that in men’s basketball. Five teams are ranked in the preseason AP Top 25, more than any other conference. Along with No. 9 Tennessee, No. 14 Arkansas, No. 15 Texas A&M, No. 16 Kentucky and No. 24 Alabama, Auburn, Mississippi State, Missouri and Florida also received votes.

“If you look at the coaches in the league, if you look at the talent level, if you look at the number of draft picks,” Arkansas coach Eric Musselman said, “I truly believe this is the premier basketball conference right now.”

Georgia coach Mike White predicted this will be “the best year in the history of the league.” At the very least, Tennessee coach Rick Barnes believes, “the most competitive year.”

Over the last five seasons, Alabama, Auburn, Kentucky and Tennessee have all been ranked No. 1 at some point. The league is stuffing the NCAA Tournament with entries every season. No other conference can match the SEC’s 61 draft picks since 2018 or 92 alumni on NBA opening-night rosters this year. Five SEC teams signed top-20 transfer classes, and six teams signed top-30 high school classes this year, per 247Sports’ rankings.

“All these schools have invested in men’s basketball, women’s basketball,” Kentucky coach John Calipari said. “They’ve invested in facilities, they’ve invested in arenas, coaches’ salaries, recruiting, all the stuff you need to be good.” So, where there might’ve been two or three teams to worry about when Calipari came into the league in 2009, he says, “now there’s nine, 10 or 11.”

Two dominant storylines

Can Calipari, Kentucky get back on top (with freshmen)?

The Wildcats will try to retake the SEC throne in the most Calipari way possible: completely against the grain. After two seasons trying and failing with older players — mostly transfers — Kentucky is back in its coach’s comfort zone with eight freshmen, two sophomores, no juniors and just two seniors. The other 13 teams in the league average just shy of eight scholarship upperclassmen — juniors, seniors and super seniors — with Texas A&M leading the way at 10. Seven SEC teams have at least nine upperclassmen. Calipari will rock with a league-low two.

What he lacks in experience, he makes up for with a freshman class ranked No. 1 nationally. “They’re all five-stars,” Pearl said. “Nobody is feeling sad for John.” Most of the league just assumes Calipari will do fine with that much talent, no matter how young.

“There’s no one better in the country, probably no one better in the history of college basketball, coaching young guys” Musselman said. “I don’t think there’s even a close second. So yes, I do think they can have great success even though they’re young, because he’s got lottery picks.”

Will the SEC end its Final Four drought?

The league has had just one Final Four participant — Auburn in 2019 — in the last five tournaments. In that time, the Big 12 has had four, the ACC four, the Big East three, Big Ten two. Put another way, the Missouri Valley, West Coast, American, Mountain West and Conference USA all have the same number of Final Four appearances as the SEC since 2017. There’s no doubt the SEC has been majorly upgraded in that same time frame, averaging seven NCAA bids over the last five tournaments, but only four total Elite Eight appearances is a little disappointing.

This year, the SEC feels especially deep, but maybe not overwhelming. Could Tennessee, Texas A&M, Arkansas, Kentucky or Alabama prove that wrong and make a deep run? It’s a prove-it year for most of those contenders. Buzz Williams and the Aggies have made consecutive SEC tournament title games and an NIT title game but haven’t won an NCAA Tournament game. Barnes has a top-10 team, but that’s been the case a lot of seasons at Tennessee and Texas, and his only Final Four was 20 years ago. Do we trust Calipari to end an eight-year Final Four drought? Nate Oats and Musselman appear to have good teams, but they’ve failed to make the national semifinals with much better rosters.

Three players to watch

Wade Taylor IV, Texas A&M: The league’s preseason player of the year, Taylor has been an extension of his coach in helping guide the Aggies to consecutive SEC tournament championship games, the 2022 NIT title game and the program’s first NCAA Tournament since 2018 last season. He averaged 16.3 points, 3.9 assists and led the league in free-throw percentage as a sophomore. His two best games came against arguably the league’s two best teams — 25 and 28 points in wins over Tennessee and Alabama, respectively.

Tre Mitchell, Kentucky: Where would the Wildcats be if Bob Huggins didn’t self-destruct this summer? Because he did, Mitchell made a last-minute move from Morgantown to Lexington — and now he might be the most important player on UK’s roster. There’s hope he’ll provide some connective tissue that pulls together all the blue-chip youngsters. Oh, and be the team’s emergency center. Between eligibility issues and injuries, none of Calipari’s three 7-footers are available yet, so the 6-9 Mitchell is filling in as a stretch-five. And he’s been a revelation in that role during exhibition games, a skilled big man through which the Wildcats can run offense, a gifted passer and serious 3-point shooting threat.

Dalton Knecht, Tennessee: The Big Sky’s leading scorer last season, Knecht is a muscled-up, 6-6 wing who averaged 20.2 points, 7.2 boards and shot 38 percent from 3-point range at Northern Colorado. He has wasted no time validating his ability at the high-major level. With starters Santiago Vescovi and Zakai Zeigler sitting out Sunday’s charity exhibition at preseason No. 4 Michigan State, Knecht went off for 28 points, seven boards and four assists in a one-point win. It wasn’t the scoring that got Barnes’ attention. “We think offensively he’s an extremely gifted player, but the way he came out and played defense, I’ve not seen that at any point in time,” Barnes said. Knecht could be the piece that puts Tennessee over the top.

Justin Edwards looks like the best of Kentucky’s talented freshman class. (John E. Sokolowski / USA Today)

Top newcomer

Justin Edwards, Kentucky: The Athletic’s NBA draft expert, Sam Vecenie, has Edwards No. 1 in his early 2024 mock. Why? The combination of size (6-8), age (20 in December), athleticism, versatility and polish for a freshman. He plays hard, rebounds, can defend multiple positions and is a capable 3-point shooter. If you’re looking for this year’s Brandon Miller, here’s the most likely guy. His handle and ability to attack off the bounce need work, but Edwards has the highest ceiling of anyone in the SEC right now, including five-star freshman teammates DJ Wagner, Aaron Bradshaw and Rob Dillingham.

Coach who needs to win

John Calipari, Kentucky

Believe it or not, Calipari is the only guy in the league who qualifies. Oats, Pearl and Barnes have all won an SEC title recently. Musselman has been to three straight Sweet 16s. Williams and Dennis Gates have major momentum, Jerry Stackhouse is coming off winning SEC Coach of the Year and everyone else is too new to put on the hot seat. So it’s just … the Hall of Famer with six career Final Fours and a national title who is in a must-win season. Calipari is just 57-36 the last three seasons with zero SEC titles and just one total win in both the SEC and NCAA tournaments. That three-year record is the program’s worst since 2007-09, Tubby Smith’s last season and Billy Gillispie’s only two seasons. From 2006-09 is the only time in the modern history of the tournament that Kentucky failed to make the Sweet 16 four straight years. Calipari is in danger of matching that this season.

Predicted order of finish (based on SEC media poll)

1. Tennessee: The Vols return three of their top four players from last season — Vescovi, Zeigler and Josiah-Jordan James — and five significant contributors from a team that led Florida Atlantic with under 10 minutes left in the Sweet 16. They redshirted top-50 recruit Freddie Dilione and top-100 prospect DJ Jefferson, added two more top-100 freshmen in Cameron Carr and JP Estrella, and picked up transfers Knecht and Jordan Gainey, who combined for 48 points in the win over Michigan State.

“He’s got more depth than he’s normally had. He’s got interchangeable parts. They’ve got experience,” Spartans coach Tom Izzo said of Barnes. “Since he’s a friend of mine, let’s put pressure on him: That’s a Final Four team. I really believe that.”

2. Texas A&M: The picture of stability in an era of constant roster churn, the Aggies return eight of their top 10 guys — five of the top six — including the top two in points, assists and steals (Taylor and Tyrece Radford) and leading rebounder (Henry Coleman). Whatever holes existed were plugged by All-Conference USA guard Eli Lawrence and All-Missouri Valley guard Jace Carter. With a core that went 52-23 and played for two league tournament titles the last two years, A&M will see if having the most experienced team in the SEC is a formula for winning it.

“We have a better chance for success if we lead the league in lowest number of transfers,” Williams said. “I understand it’s a rarity to have this many returning players, but I also think that’s why maybe we have a chance to be good. (Player retention) is a new category that we spend an inordinate amount of time on in our facility.”

Trevon Brazile’s return is an important one for Arkansas. (Nelson Chenault / USA Today)

3. Arkansas: For all their success the last three years — two Elite Eights, three straight Sweet 16s, five NBA Draft picks — it’s hard to believe the Razorbacks have not won a regular-season title or even made the SEC championship game under Musselman. But he always seems to figure it out and push the right buttons come March. There might be some early growing pains again this year with nine new players, including seven transfers.

But there’s plenty of college experience on this roster, including eight seniors (or super seniors). Davonte Davis and Makhi Mitchell, who started 31 games apiece, are back. And Trevon Brazile, a potential star who was lost to injury before Christmas last season, is too. Then Musselman, the transfer king, added starters from Louisville (El Ellis), Houston (Tramon Mark), Temple (Khalif Battle), Cincinnati (Jeremiah Davenport), Memphis (Chandler Lawson) and Southern Miss (Denijay Harris) to reload.

4. Kentucky: Fourth?! The Wildcats had been picked to win the league every season but one (when they were picked second) from 2011 to 2022. It’s a show-me season, and Calipari is definitely in “I’ll show you” mode by zigging while everyone zags. “Look, I’m not changing,” he said. “I’m going to recruit the best freshman player that I can get. Now, you could say, ‘It’s not going to work anymore!’ Well, we’ll see.”

His three veteran guys, super seniors Mitchell and Antonio Reeves and blossoming sophomore Adou Thiero, will likely buy the freshmen some time to figure it out. They combined for 50 points, 17 rebounds, eight assists and five steals in the team’s first exhibition game, where they made 20 of 30 shots. They set the floor. The super-talented freshmen will determine the ceiling.

5. Alabama: The last two times the SEC media poll tabbed the Crimson Tide to finish fifth, they won the league (regular season and tournament), in 2021 and last season. “Shows how smart you guys are,” Oats joked at the league’s media day. “If you can pick us fifth again next year, that would be great.”

Oats brought in three all-league players from mid-major programs: Hofstra’s Aaron Estrada (20.2 ppg, 5.5 rpg, 4.3 apg), North Dakota State’s Grant Nelson (17.9 ppg, 9.3 rpg) and Cal State Fullerton’s Latrell Wrightsell Jr. (16.3 ppg, 4.5 rpg). Alabama signed a top-five transfer class and top-20 high school class, headlined by top-50 prospect Jarin Stevenson, because it had to. Mark Sears and Rylan Griffen are the only key cogs back from last season’s No. 1 overall seed in the NCAA Tournament.

6. Auburn: By current standards, adding just three players to the previous year’s roster is a mind-blowing level of continuity. It helps when two of the new guys are five-star freshman point guard Aden Holloway and transfer shooting guard Denver Jones, the No. 2 scorer (20.1 ppg) in C-USA last season. Six of the top nine guys return from an NCAA Tournament team, including 6-10 star Johni Broome, who led the Tigers in points (14.2), rebounds (8.4) and blocks (2.4). Losing Allen Flanigan to Ole Miss hurts, but there are eight remaining upperclassmen capable of contributing. “Our five guys may not be that much better than anybody else’s five,” Bruce Pearl said, “but when I go to the bench, I’m not dropping off.”

7. Mississippi State: The ceiling here hinges on the recovery of Tolu Smith, an All-SEC center who averaged 15.7 points and 8.5 rebounds last season. With him, the Bulldogs have back their top five guys from a team that lost by one point in the First Four. They also added the Sun Belt’s No. 2 scorer, Marshall transfer Andrew Taylor (20.2 ppg). But Smith suffered a foot injury in early October and isn’t expected back until at least mid-January. Can the Bulldogs stay afloat while he’s out? “He’s the heart and soul of our team,” coach Chris Jans said. “We’re not as big and physical and athletic as we were hoping to be.”

8. Florida: The Gators return their No. 2 and No. 3 scorers, Will Richard and Riley Kugel, but that’s … about it. Colin Castleton and Kyle Lofton entered the draft, Kowacie Reeves transferred to Georgia Tech, and a ton of production walked out the door. But second-year coach Todd Golden assembled one of the best transfer hauls in the country: All-Big West guard Zyon Pullin (18.3 ppg), MAAC Player of the Year Walter Clayton Jr. (16.8 ppg), Sun Belt Rookie of the Year and 7-foot-1 center Micah Handlogten (9.8 rpg, 2.3 bpg), All-Ivy League forward EJ Jarvis (11.3 ppg) and super senior Seton Hall starter Tyrese Samuel (11.0 ppg). Three of the new guys shoot 39-plus percent from 3. Florida could finish much higher than eighth.

9. Missouri: The Tigers lost their top three scorers off a 25-win team that reached the NCAA Tournament second round in Gates’ first season. They’ll especially miss All-SEC forward and first-round pick Kobe Brown. But Nick Honor, Noah Carter and Sean East are all back after averaging at least 22 minutes last season, and they’re joined by four-star freshmen Trent Pierce and Jordan Butler and four solid transfers. Caleb Grill (Iowa State), Tamar Bates (Indiana) and John Tonje (Colorado State) are all shooting threats, while the 7-foot-5 Connor Vanover – formerly of Cal, Arkansas and Oral Roberts – averaged 3.2 blocks. Given the Year 1 success, it seems unwise to count out Gates.

10. Ole Miss: Kermit Davis and most of last year’s (not very good) roster is out. The controversial Chris Beard and a whole bunch of new guys are in. Whatever one thinks of Beard personally, he certainly can coach. But he’s got his work cut out for him in Oxford. Matthew Murrell, Jaemyn Brakefield and TJ Caldwell are solid holdovers, and Beard landed a top-10 transfer class, including Flanigan (69 starts at Auburn) and Jamarion Sharp (NCAA shot-block leader at Western Kentucky). But the season hinges on pending waiver requests for Moussa Cisse (Oklahoma State) and Brandon Murray (Georgetown).

11. Vanderbilt: Stackhouse’s team clicked late last season, winning 12 of its final 15 games. That included a victory over Tennessee, two over Kentucky, an SEC semifinal appearance and a win over Michigan in the NIT. Then Liam Robbins ran out of eligibility and the transfer portal plucked four of their top seven guys. But Stackhouse held onto star Tyrin Lawrence and super senior Ezra Manjon for a terrific 1-2 punch in the backcourt. The question is whether they have enough help.

12. Georgia: After going 6-26 in Tom Crean’s final season, the Bulldogs’ 16-16 record in Year 1 under White felt like progress. White signed a top-15 high school class and top-30 transfer class to reclaim more hope. Four-star freshmen Silas Demary Jr., Blue Cain and Dylan James inject some needed talent, while quality transfers RJ Melendez (Illinois), Jalen DeLoach (VCU), Russel Tchewa (USF) and Noah Thomasson (Niagara) should replenish experience.

13. LSU: Matt McMahon somehow cobbled together a 12-1 start in his first season, but the Tigers then lost 14 in a row 18 of 20 to close the season. In addition to top-100 freshmen Corey Chest and Mike Williams, LSU added six transfers. That included former Kentucky five-star Daimion Collins, Tulane star Jalen Cook, Vanderbilt starter Jordan Wright and All-Mountain West center Will Baker.

14. South Carolina: Since 2004, the Gamecocks have been to one NCAA Tournament — which ended in the 2017 Final Four. Since then, the program has lost more games than it has won. Lamont Paris had top-10 recruit GG Jackson last season but not much else as the Gamecocks went 11-21 in his first season. This year’s roster, at least, has a total of 480 career starts under its belt.

(Top photo of Wade Taylor IV: Jay Biggerstaff / Getty Images)

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SEC basketball preview: Can Tennessee or Texas A&amp;M break through in deep league?